Several cited 2021 Ukrainian documents and Russia’s troop buildup are real, but the conclusion that Ukraine planned to attack Russia and that this is why Russia invaded is not supported.
Claim-by-claim breakdown
Accurate (92% confidence): In 2021, Ukraine approved a strategy for the de-occupation and reintegration of Crimea. Official Ukrainian presidential materials describe the strategy for de-occupation and reintegration of Crimea.
Misleading (84% confidence): That Crimea strategy said Ukraine would take back Crimea by military means. The official summary says the strategy envisages various measures for de-occupation, including diplomatic, military, economic, and informational ones.
Accurate (90% confidence): Ukraine's 2021 military security strategy described Russia as a military adversary and made ending Russian occupation a priority. The 2021 Military Security Strategy identified the Russian Federation as a military adversary and centered resistance to Russian aggression and occupation.
Accurate (92% confidence): In 2021 Zelensky submitted a bill to increase the size of Ukraine's armed forces. The bill was part of Ukraine's broader defense policy and did not mean Ukraine was planning to attack Russia.
Accurate (95% confidence): Russia had about 90,000 troops near Ukraine's border in late 2021. Multiple reports in late 2021 cited about 90,000 Russian troops near Ukraine's border.
False (96% confidence): Ukraine was openly preparing to attack Russia, and this is a documented fact. Ukraine's public strategies in 2021 framed Russia as an aggressor and discussed de-occupation and defense, not a plan to invade Russia.
Unsupported (86% confidence): Putin waited three years to launch the invasion in order to retaliate against Zelensky's behavior at the 2019 press conference. The timing of the 2019 meeting and the 2022 invasion does not establish motive, and the claim relies on speculation about Putin's intentions.