Think Again on Instagram: "A Former Climate Activist Who Broke Up With The Movement
Lucy Biggers went to a climate march with a few charts. Climate-related disaster deaths are down 99% since 1920. “I’m just gonna have to die young in a dying world.” Then she showed them the numbers.
#thinkagain #climate #climateanxiety #lucybiggers #freepress"
Verdict: Some claims are broadly true, but several are oversimplified or false by omission.
The video mixes accurate points about declining disaster deaths and some hurricane trend uncertainty with misleading claims about emissions, warming, and climate risk.
Claim-by-claim breakdown
Accurate (88% confidence): Climate-related disaster deaths have fallen by about 99% since 1920. Reuters and Our World in Data both show deaths in the 1920s around 480,000 per year on average, falling to under 20,000 in the 2010s.
Accurate (73% confidence): We are safer than ever from climate-related disaster deaths because of modernization and adaptation. UN and Reuters reporting show weather/climate disasters caused far fewer deaths in recent decades even as economic losses rose, consistent with improved preparedness and development.
Misleading (66% confidence): Increasing fossil fuel use increases GDP and is what lifts the most people out of poverty. The World Bank and related research show poverty reduction can occur with varying energy mixes; they do not say fossil-fuel use is the only or best way to reduce poverty.
Accurate (77% confidence): Fracked gas produces about 50% less carbon emissions than coal. EIA says burning natural gas produces fewer CO2 emissions than burning coal, and many references describe gas as roughly half as carbon-intensive as coal at the point of combustion.
Accurate (70% confidence): Observed hurricane rates and frequencies have stayed the same, with no increase in hurricane activity. NOAA says global tropical cyclone frequency timeseries do not show significant rising trends, and NOAA Climate.gov says no confident trend can yet be detected in Atlantic hurricane activity from human-caused climate change.
Accurate (69% confidence): The U.S. is not living in the hottest time in its history; the Dust Bowl era had hotter extremes. NOAA notes the 1930s Dust Bowl brought some of the hottest summers on record in the U.S., especially across the Plains and Midwest, while recent decades have also set new national heat records.
False (95% confidence): Climate scientists predicted almost 1 degree Celsius of warming, but only 0.1 degree was observed. NASA and IPCC report roughly 1°C to 1.1°C of global warming since 1880 or 1850-1900, far above 0.1°C.
Unsupported (86% confidence): You are not going to die from climate change. Climate impacts vary widely by region and vulnerability; no general source can prove that no one will die from climate change.